Oscar Predictions

Filed under: Movie Review

John Forestell is one of my best friends and is an absolute movie fanatic, even more so than I am. He compiled a list of his Oscar predictions that I thought were rather interesting, so I thought I would share them with you guys. Unfortunately I haven’t seen many of the movies or performances nominated, so it is hard to give an accurate assessment myself.

John is one of three people who’s movie opinions I trust whole-heartedly, along with my cousin Nicholas and Tony Gentilcore, so he does have excellent taste. On to the predictions.

Best Picture

  • Black Swan
  • The Fighter
  • Inception
  • The Kids Are All Right
  • The King’s Speech
  • 127 Hours
  • The Social Network
  • Toy Story 3
  • True Grit
  • Winter’s Bone

Who the Academy will choose: “The King’s Speech”.  The Academy absolutely adores films such as “The King’s Speech”, an endearing British political drama based on the relationship between the stuttering King George VI and his speech therapist, Lionel Lague, who helped the King overcome his public speech impediment.

Who I think deserves to win: While the Academy, for whatever mind boggling reason, decided to leave “Blue Valentine” off it’s nominations list, the only other film that could contest with the “The King’s Speech” this year was “The Social Network.”  “The Social Network” was an exceptionally well done film, but, “The King’s Speech” is the Academy’s bread and butter and I don’t believe they will be buttering a different type of loaf this year.  With “Blue Valentine” (my favorite film of the year) not being on this list, my oscar goes to: “The King’s Speech.”

Upset Alert:  “Toy Story 3”

Best Director

  • “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
  • “The Fighter” David O. Russell
  • “The King’s Speech” Tom Hooper
  • “The Social Network” David Fincher
  • “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Who the Academy will choose: David Fincher. Fincher is due for some recognition from the Academy and he will finally get his little gold statue for his direction in “The Social Network” which is the story about Mark Zuckerberg and the origin of Facebook.

Who I think deserves to win: First of all, I must voice my displeasure at the Academy for the rude, blatant, and unnecessary omission of Christopher Nolan.  What the hell does this guy have to do to get a directing nod?  Resurrect Jesus Christ? “True Grit” was and is one of the Coen Brothers worst films and “Inception” was one of the most original films I’ve seen in my lifetime.  With that being said, I think Darren Aronofsky did the best job in directing the talent he had.  My oscar goes to Darren Aronofsky.

Upset Alert:  David O. Russell for “The Fighter”

Best Actor

  • Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
  • Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
  • Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
  • Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”
  • James Franco in “127 Hours”3

Who the Academy will choose: Colin Firth.  Signed. Sealed.  Done deal.  Move his name towards the top of the A-list.  If I was a betting man, I would bet the house on this one.

Who I think deserves to win: Ryan Gosling was magical in “Blue Valentine” and I was really surprised (and sad) his name wasn’t on this list.  On the other end, Jeff Bridges, while I admire and respect The Dude, shouldn’t be on this list at all (he basically revamped an original character played by John Wayne).  James Franco gave a breathtaking performance in “127 hours” and in any other year he would have more than likely sealed it up.  Nonetheless, Colin Firth is my oscar winner after he put forth one of the best performances I’ve seen since Daniel Day-Lewis won for “There Will be Blood”.  On a side note, I almost swore off the Academy Awards all together when Lewis was ABSOLUTELY ROBBED for best actor in 2002.   Still don’t understand how that happened.  Adrian Brody? Over Bill the Butcher? Really?

Upset Alert: Javier Bardem

Best Actress

  • Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
  • Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
  • Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
  • Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
  • Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Who the Academy will choose: Michelle Williams. William’s stars opposite Ryan Gosling in “Blue Valentine” which tell us the heart-wrenching story of a love-struck relationship turned upside down.

Who I think deserves to win: This is the toughest category in the whole show. Portman’s performance in “Black Swam” was mesmerizing, and in any other circumstance she would probably have my oscar.  However, William’s had to go through major life changes (Heath Ledgers death) during the production of “Blue Valentine” and we see her create a character so real and powerful that we can feel her pain coming through the screen.  You just want to reach into the screen, give her a hug, and tell her that everything is going to be OK.  Her performance made me well up with tears, and that’s why my oscar goes to Michelle Williams.

Upset Alert:  Jennifer Lawrence (think Marisa Tomei)

Best Supporting Actor

  • Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
  • John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
  • Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
  • Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
  • Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”

Who the Academy will choose: Christian Bale.  Bale give’s us a picturesque performance as the trainer and brother of famous Lowell, Massachusetts boxer Mickey Ward in “The Fighter”.

Who I think deserves to win: Bale gives his best performance since “American Psycho” (for which he was also nominated for). I admire the way he transforms his body for different roles. He is much like Daniel Day-Lewis in the way that he prepares for his roles; and then performs them with unwavering tenacity.  The other gentlemen had fine performances, but nothing even came close to Bale in my estimation.   My oscar goes to Christian Bale.

Upset Alert: John Hawkes

Best Supporting Actress

  • Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
  • Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”
  • Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
  • Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
  • Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

Who the Academy will choose: Melissa Leo.  Leo plays the mother and manager of boxer Mickey Ward in “The Fighter”.

Who I think deserves to win: This might be the second toughest category in the show.  Adams and Leo both play hard-nosed Irish-catholic women from Lowell, Mass, and both give extraordinary performances.  The fact that they are playing actual real people makes their performances equally captivating, and subsequently separates them from the rest of the pack.   However, I did feel as though Adams stood out from Leo during their scenes together in the film.  My oscar goes to Amy Adams.

Upset Alert:  Hailee Steinfeld

Best Original Screenplay

  • “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
  • “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
  • Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
  • “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
  • “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
  • “The King’s Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler

Who the Academy will choose: David Seidler for “The King’s Speech”

Who I think deserves to win: Christoper Nolan for “Inception”.  Inception is the most original screenplay since the Matrix, and Nolan deserves to finally be recognized for his writing attributes.   Nolan started writing the script roughly ten years ago, and when he finally finished it, no one wanted to make a thought twisting movie about dreams.  After Nolan made a huge splash with his Batman movies, the studio decided to green light his pet project.  Inception solidifies Nolan’s genius and his place among the best filmmakers in Hollywood.  My oscar goes to Nolan.

Upset Alert:  “The Kids Are All Right”

Let me know what you guys think.

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Posted on February 22nd, 2011 by Brian St. Pierre

1 Comment

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